Comparison of vaccination strategies for the control of dog rabies in Machakos District, Kenya
Domaine:
healthcareType de record:
paper
Créateur:
P.MJ.JP GC.
Éditeur:
Cam
Hôte:
Demographic and epidemiological field data were used in a deterministic model to describe dog rabies transmission in Machakos District, Kenya and to predict the impact of potential vaccination strategies for its control. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) was estimated to be 2.44 (1.52–3.36, 95% confidence limits). There were three key model predictions. The first was that a threshold dog density (K T ) of 4.5 dogs km −2 (3.8–5.2 dogs km −2 , 95% confidence limits) was required to maintain transmission. The second was that the estimated annual vaccination rate of 24% failed to decrease incidence and actually increased the stability of transmission and may be counter-productive. Thirdly, to control rabies, it was predicted that 59% (34%–70%, 95% confidence limits) of dogs should be vaccinated at any one time. This requires approximately 70% coverage for annual but only 60% coverage for semi-annual vaccination campaigns. Community-level vaccination trials are needed to test these predictions.
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