Connectivity Without Deconcentration? Country- and Institution-Level Evidence from Cross-Country African Scientific Collaboration

Scientific collaboration across African countries has expanded rapidly, but wider participation does not necessarily distribute collaboration strength more evenly. This study examines 116,078 Scopus-indexed cross-country African publications from 2000–2024 using country networks and institution networks constructed from the 101,327 records with conservatively verified cross-country institutional affiliations. It applies full and pair-fractional counting, compares long-standing institutions with new entrants, evaluates regional collaboration against expectations based on regional strength, and separates African-only publications from those that also include non-African affiliations. The study found that in 2020–2024, an almost fully connected country network contrasted with 17,842 institutions linked by 159,009 cross-country ties. Pair-fractional Gini coefficients were 0.683 for countries and 0.892 for institutions, while cross-region observed-to-expected ratios were 0.788 and 0.794. Publications involving at least one non-African affiliation comprised 63.4% of period output and produced different institutional rankings and regional patterns. The main conclusions remained consistent after sensitivity tests for exceptionally large research teams, document type and COVID-19 publications. African collaboration therefore expanded in reach without comparable institutional deconcentration. The study offers a transferable two-level framework for determining whether collaboration growth broadens participation, redistributes collaboration strength or does both.