CONTEXTUAL MISMATCH AND STARTUP MORTALITY: A COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY OF REPLICATED SILICON VALLEY LOGISTICS MODELS IN NIGERIA

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa with a population of 237.5 million according to the United Nations Population Fund (2025), also holds the continent's largest economy, with a GDP of $3.85 trillion in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. The country remains a major commercial hub in the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Against the backdrop of this market advantage, Nigeria has become a booming commercial and e-commerce hub that continues to attract a substantial cohort of logistics startups, many modelled on Silicon Valley platform-based logistics frameworks imported from the US. However, despite considerable venture capital inflows, many of these startups have exited the market within a short period, undergoing radical operational pivots or contracting significantly in scale.   The Silicon Valley logistics model, defined by algorithmic dispatching, gig-economy labour, asset-light scaling, and on-demand delivery, has demonstrated sustained commercial success in mature markets characterized by reliable physical infrastructure, standardized addressing systems, and deeply embedded digital payment ecosystems. But, its direct replication in emerging economies has consistently generated operational friction, financial deterioration, and, in many cases, venture failure (Kumar & Srivastava, 2020; World Bank, 2023). This study investigates the relationship between the contextual mismatch in the Silicon Valley cloned logistics startups that failed and the ones that succeeded in Nigeria.   Employing a qualitative multiple-case study design, the research systematically compares four failed or substantially pivoted platform clones with four Nigerian logistics firms that achieved viability through deliberate contextual adaptation.   Drawing on Institutional Theory, Resource Dependence Theory, and Last-Mile Delivery Theory, the research identifies how infrastructural voids, payment system constraints, non-standardized addressing systems, and deep-rooted trust deficits collectively invalidate the operational and economic assumptions embedded in imported business models.   The expected outputs include a contextual adaptation framework for relevant stakeholders and a set of policy recommendations for the development of the logistics ecosystem in emerging markets.   By reframing venture failure as a problem of model-environment misalignment rather than generic entrepreneurial deficiency, this research advances scholarly discourse on business model transferability, institutional voids, and supply chain innovation in sub-Saharan Africa.