Control planning maps for Kenya in 2009.

(a) Recommended intervention districts for 2009, and (b) the proportion of the population for each district exceeding the prevalence threshold. Prediction locations are defined as exceeding the prevalence threshold if the probability that prevalence is ≥20% is >0.5. Recommended intervention districts are defined as: once yearly mass drug administration (MDA), at least 33% of the district exceeds 20% prevalence threshold, and twice yearly MDA, at least 33% of the district exceeds 20% prevalence threshold. Continued surveillance is recommended for districts where historically >75% of the district exceeded the 20% prevalence based on 1998 and 1988, and areas of high uncertainty are those where we can only be 50–65% certain that prevalence is lower than 20%. For reference (c) shows the distribution of population density across Kenya, using the Gridded Population of Kenya (as previously described [34]), and the biological transmission limit, estimated using maximum LST >40°C.