Covid-19 and Poverty Assessment in Nigeria – The Vulnerability Approach

The aim of the study was to abstract from the vulnerability theory to predict the likelihood of more people in Nigeria falling into the poverty trap as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. The study used a parametric technique to obtain estimates of the mean and variance of one-period ahead log-consumption. In doing this, the study hypothesized that estimating household consumption function is important in making inferences about the future and in assessing the vulnerability of household to shocks. The simulation analysis shows that of the 82 percent of the households that are vulnerable to poverty, only about 13 percent are in transitory poverty while the rest are in structural poverty. The implication of this finding is that poverty situation in Nigeria is widespread, entrenched and inter-generational. The current coronavirus pandemic has merely worsened the poverty situation and is not the fundamental cause of poverty in Nigeria. The study recommended among others, that anti-poverty intervention measures of the government, going forward, must be forward-looking and aim largely to increase the productive capacity of the populace instead of merely aiming to alleviate their current state of poverty.