D8.2 Land indicators and models report. Development and supply chain guidelines using multi-criteria logistical assessment

This report presents the findings of a study that explored the distribution of encroacher bush species, the impacts of land use change, and the mapping of soil organic carbon (SOC) in southern Africa during the activities carried out in Task 8.2. The study employed advanced data analysis and modelling techniques to identify critical areas for intervention and develop adaptive management strategies.Effective environmental management requires a deep understanding of the interactions between species, land use, and soil health. In southern Africa, the expansion of encroacher bush and invasive alien species along with land use changes pose significant challenges to environmental sustainability. SOC, an essential ecosystem component, is closely linked to soil productivity and climate change mitigation.The study collected data from diverse sources, including satellite imagery, field measurements, and climate data. This data was used to develop models of encroacher bush and alien species distribution, assess the impact of land use change on SOC, and map the spatial distribution of SOC across the region.The study findings revealed complex patterns in the distribution of encroacher bush and alien species, influenced by climatic factors, resource competition, and landscape characteristics. Land use change had a significant impact on SOC, with forest conversion to cropland resulting in a substantial decline in SOC levels. The generated SOC maps provided valuable insights into the spatial distribution of this critical resource.The findings of this study have significant implications for environmental management in southern Africa. Identifying areas at high risk of bush encroachment and understanding the impact of land use change on SOC are essential for developing effective management strategies. The generated SOC maps can be used to guide soil restoration and carbon sequestration initiatives.This study demonstrates the value of advanced data analysis and modeling techniques for addressing complex environmental challenges. The results provide valuable information for environmental management in southern Africa, contributing to biodiversity conservation, soil restoration, and climate change mitigation.However, additional data and improvement on accuracy of the bush distribution models should be required at local level.As well as an assessment on the impact of different soil management practices on SOC and soil productivity could be interesting to define specific strategies in the three countries. Finally, an integrated management strategy should be developed to address bush encroachment, land use change, and soil degradation.