Data Sheet 1_Assessing the importance and feasibility of vulnerability factors in the climate disaster–conflict nexus: expert evidence from Egypt.docx

Introduction

This study evaluates 15 social vulnerability factors mediating the climate disaster–conflict nexus, assessing their relative importance for conflict prevention and their implementation feasibility under Egypt’s current institutional and political conditions, as perceived by experts. Although previous research has identified key vulnerability factors, their relative significance and implementation feasibility within the context of conflict prevention remain insufficiently explored.

Methods

To address this gap, we conducted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study with 12 experts in Egypt working at the intersection of climate and peacebuilding, combining a 0–10 scale questionnaire with semi-structured interviews. Descriptive ratings mapped each factor along the axes of “importance” and “feasibility,” while qualitative analysis examined the underlying rationales and contextual conditions.

Results

The results revealed that while importance was rated highly, implementation feasibility was generally rated low, indicating that many factors are critical, yet involve significant implementation challenges. Specifically, governance received the highest importance ratings among the experts but exhibited low feasibility in the short to medium term. Conversely, agriculture, access to natural resources, and land degradation were evaluated as factors with relatively high feasibility. Furthermore, technology and gender were identified as areas where initial interventions are relatively easy to design under specific conditions, although expert consensus varied across several factors.

Discussion

The study highlights that implementation feasibility is not an inherent property of a factor, but a context-dependent political judgment contingent upon political will, administrative capacity, last-mile delivery, and social acceptance. By framing the selection of intervention targets as a joint problem of importance and implementation feasibility, this study offers insights for debates on environmental peacebuilding and climate governance. Policymakers should apply this framework to adopt a phased approach, focusing first on highly feasible livelihood interventions to build initial trust before tackling deeply entrenched governance challenges. In Egypt and similarly constrained settings, this strategic sequencing is essential for moving beyond theoretical importance to design actionable, conflict-sensitive climate policies. However, because these findings reflect expert perceptions anchored to Egypt’s specific institutional context, applying this framework to other political and geographical settings requires careful validation.