Decomposing Climate-Resilient Urban Regeneration: Principal Component Analysis of Green Infrastructure and Neighbourhood Adaptation in Asaba, Nigeria.

Abstract   This research explores the structural constraints of climate-resilient urban renewal by empirically unpacking green infrastructure attributes and neighbourhood adaptation capacity in Asaba, Delta State, Nigeria. Situated within the context of rapid urbanisation and increased climate exposure in vulnerable African cities, the study employs a cross-sectional survey design, underpinned by spatial and perceptual indices, to track neighbourhood resilience pathways. Data were collected from 430 households using structured questionnaires and environmental field measurements. Multivariate Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to reduce the dimensionality of green infrastructure variables, while multiple linear regression investigated their effects on adaptation capacity, with diagnostic tests assessing model precision. Three principal components explaining 69.1% of variance were extracted and referred to as ecological structure, hydrological regulation, and thermal microclimate control. Regression results show ecological structure exerted the strongest effect on neighbourhood adaptive capacity (β = 0.41, p < .001), followed by hydrological regulation (β = 0.36, p < .001) and thermal control (β = 0.29, p < .01). The overall model demonstrated significant explanatory power (R² = 0.464), highlighting the importance of nature‑based solutions for flood resilience, thermal comfort, and environmental quality. The study concludes that ecological structure is the most decisive driver of neighbourhood adaptation, with hydrological regulation and thermal control also significant. Institutionalising green infrastructure in the planning framework is essential. Policy-makers should integrate ecological and hydrological functions into regeneration strategies, strengthen neighbourhood-level adaptation planning, and prioritise Nature-based solutions (Nbs) to enhance resilience, environmental quality, and sustainable urban renewal in Asaba and Global South contexts.