DEMOGRAPHIC GROWTH AND PUBLIC PRIMARY SCHOOL ACCESS AND ENROLMENT IN BOSSO LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, NIGER STATE, NIGERIA

Rapid demographic growth places increasing pressure on public primary education systems in developing countries by expanding the school-age population beyond existing institutional capacity. This study examined the implications of demographic growth for public primary school access and enrolment in Bosso Local Government Area (LGA), Niger State, Nigeria. Specifically, the study assessed enrolment trends from 2005 to 2025, examined the effects of demographic growth on school access, identified infrastructure challenges, and analysed the socioeconomic implications of population-driven educational barriers. A mixed-method descriptive survey design was adopted, combining questionnaires, interviews, with secondary enrolment records spanning 2005 to 2025 to capture trends, while primary field data were collected during the 2024/2025 academic session the terminal end of the 21-year study period and the most appropriate anchor point for assessing current conditions against the enrolment trend. A sample of 348 respondents was selected from ten public primary schools using a multi-stage sampling technique. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Pearson Correlation. Findings revealed that pupil enrolment increased from 16,119 in 2005 to 32,116 in 2025, representing approximately 99 percent growth. A very strong positive relationship existed between demographic growth and enrolment (r = 0.981, p < 0.001), Furthermore, 85.1 percent of schools reported classroom overcrowding, 68.9 percent reported teacher shortages, and 64.2 percent reported inadequate learning materials, while financial and socio-cultural barriers further restricted access. The study concludes that public primary school capacity in Bosso LGA is insufficient to meet the demands of sustained demographic growth and recommends increased investment in school infrastructure, teacher recruitment, and demographic planning.