DETERMINANTS OF FOOD SECURITY STATUS AMONG RURAL FARMING HOUSEHOLD IN NIGERIA

Food security remains a critical challenge in Nigeria, disproportionately affecting rural farming households despite their pivotal role in agricultural production. This study empirically investigates the determinants of food security among households and provides evidence critical to achieving Nigeria’s National Food security. The study uses longitudinal data from the Nigerian General Household Survey (GHS) across two waves (2010/2011 and 2015/2016). Results reveal deterioration in food security, with prevalence decline from 44.28% (2010/2011) to 38.07% (2015/2016). Markov transition analysis indicates persistent vulnerability where 75.4% of initially food-insecure households remained so, while 45% of food-secured households transitioned into insecurity. Long-term projections suggest only 35.4% will achieve food security at equilibrium. Regression analysis identifies four significant determinants (𝑝<0.10): householdsize (negative effect, −14.21%), accesstoinsurance (positive), credit access (positive, +37.60%), and secondary education (positive, +53.84%). The findings underscore the multifaceted nature of food insecurity, driven by demographic pressures, institutional barriers, and human capital constraints. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that policy interventions should prioritize family planning education, financial inclusion through simplified credit access, expansion of agricultural insurance schemes (Nigerian Agricultural Insurance Corporation), and investments in secondary education to enhance resilience and sustainable productivity. This study provides evidence critical for achieving Nigeria’s National Food Security Policy and SDG 2 targets.