Determining the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce

Abstract Generically, couples marry with the intention of staying together for as long as they both live, but some couples divorce before the end of the time span of this commitment. Divorce has negative consequences that can cause strains that may persist over a long time for the divorced couples and minor children from the marriage. This study investigated the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce in South Africa. This study used the marriage and divorce data for divorce cases whose divorce decrees were granted in 2022. These data were representative of the entire country and were consolidated by Statistics South Africa. The Weibull Accelerated Failure Time model was used to determine the predictors of short duration of marriage to divorce. It was found that the number of children in the marriage, Black/African couples, customary marriage, and civil-union couples, husbands, and wives who were widowed or divorced at the beginning of their recent respective marriages had statistically significantly shorter durations of marriage to divorce than their respective counterparts. Black/African couples should seek advice from the elders of both the husband’s and wife’s families when they have marital disputes before considering professional help from therapists and psychologists. Therapists and marriage counsellors should use the findings of this study to help them to design intervention programmes and counselling strategies tailored to the specific risk factors contributing to divorce. Regarding customary marriage, the elders should not enforce arranged marriages to their children.