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Diffusion Under Constraint  <div> <span>How Infrastructure Gaps, Trust Deficits, And Informality Shape Technology Adoption Paths -A Crosssector Analysis of Mobile Money, Rooftop Solar, and E-Government In Frontier Markets</span> <p> </p> </div>

Domaine:

digital infrastructuresocioeconomic

Type de record:

paper
Créateur:
Hun
Éditeur:
Elsevier BV
Hôte:
Frontier-market technology adoption is routinely read as a single diffusion curve: once hardware cheapens and mobile coverage arrives, the S-curve follows. The cross-section of low-and middle-income countries rejects that reading. Using World Bank, Global Findex, IRENA, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and UN E-Government Development Index series for 131 low-and middle-income countries, this paper shows that three widely promoted technologies-mobile money, solar electricity, and digital public services-load on different constraints and therefore produce different national paths. Account ownership in Sub-Saharan Africa sits 20 percentage points above the level predicted by income, infrastructure, trust, and informality. Kenya's 90 percent account rate is 39 points above the income-accounts line. Uganda reaches 73 percent account ownership on 9 percent internet use. The same region holds 10 watts of solar capacity per capita against 506 in high-income countries, despite a 9.5-fold collapse in module prices since 2010. In the LMIC solar regression, a World Bank governance composite outpredicts both income and electricity access. E-government is a third pattern. The UN Online Service Index tracks government effectiveness (r = 0.65). The composite E-Government Development Index correlates-0.64 with selfemployment. Rwanda's online-service score of 0.82 on a telecom-infrastructure score of 0.37 is the existence proof that states can build services ahead of pipes-and the reminder that pipes still cap the composite. The policy error is to treat a mobile-money success as a digital-readiness credential. It is a statement about which constraint the technology was able to ignore.

Licenses

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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