DIGITAL FINANCIAL SERVICES AND FINANCIAL INCLUSION IN NIGERIA

Despite Nigeria's emergence as Africa's largest fintech ecosystem, approximately 38 million Nigerian adults remain financially excluded as of 2023, underscoring the paradox between technological diffusion and persistent financial exclusion. This study examines the impact of digital financial services (DFS) on financial inclusion (FI) in Nigeria over the period 2001–2022, employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series regression framework. Five control variable dimensions are incorporated: demographic factor (DF), economic factor (EF), technology access (TEA), regulatory environment (RE), and geographic factor (GF). Anchored on diffusion of innovation theory, institutional theory, and the financial intermediation hypothesis, the findings reveal that DFS exerts a statistically significant and positive effect on FI (β = 4.862, p < 0.001), corroborated by long-run cointegration evidence. TEA, EF, and RE also significantly promote FI, while GF exerts a significant negative effect, confirming persistent urban–rural disparities. Post-estimation diagnostics confirm model validity. The study contributes a multidimensional time series framework to the FI literature, offering actionable policy insights for regulators, fintech operators, and development finance institutions committed to advancing universal financial access in Sub-Saharan Africa.