Disease burden estimates for 2018 with equal model priors.

1,000 predictions of the burden in 2018 across the African endemic zone on log10 scale. The probability an infection is severe is drawn from a beta distribution with shape parameters 6.4 and 44.6 [39]. Predictions are drawn from each transmission model proportional to the model evidence under the assumption of equal model priors where pink points come from the λ model and blue points, from the R₀ model.