DiSH-trend: Intervention Modeling Simulator That Accounts for Trend Influences

Simulation on directed graphs is an important method for understanding the dynamics in the systems where connectivity graphs contain cycles. Discrete Stochastic Heterogeneous Simulator (DiSH) is one of the simulation tools with wide application, which uses regulator values to calculate state updates of regulated elements. Here we present a new simulation approach DiSH-trend which also takes into account the trends in regulating elements. We demonstrate the features of trend-based regulation, as well as hybrid regulation, which is a combination of the trend- and level-based approaches. The modeling capabilities are demonstrated on a small toy model, showcasing different functionalities. Real-world capabilities are demonstrated on a larger network model of food insecurity in the Ethiopian region Oromia. Adding trend-based regulation to models results in increased modeling flexibility, and hybrid regulation improves qualitative dynamic behavior prediction. With appropriate data, DiSH-trend becomes a powerful tool for exploring intervention strategies. 12 pages, 5 figures, to be published in Proceedings of the 2021 Winter Simulation Conference