Disruptive Infrastructure and Modal Shift Dynamics: A Mixed-Methods Analysis of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) in Kenya

This study investigates the role of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) Kenya as a disruptive infrastructure intervention and its influence on modal shift dynamics within the country's transport system, with particular focus on the Mombasa-Nairobi corridor. The study seeks to find out the impact of the SGR on the shift of freight and passenger transport from road to rail, examine the influence of transport cost, travel time, reliability, and safety on modal choice, and assess its effects on profitability, employment, and service coverage within the road freight and bus transport sectors. It also explores the perceptions and experiences of key transport stakeholders, including truck drivers, transport investors, clearing and forwarding employees, shippers, commuters, and regulators, concerning the disruptive effects of the SGR. Accordingly, the study will use deductive reasoning, positivism and an objectivist/realist orientation primarily for the quantitative strand, while inductive reasoning, subjectivism and interpretivism will primarily guide the qualitative strand. Ontology and epistemology will underpin both strands, although their application will differ according to the type of knowledge being generated. This philosophical arrangement is consistent with the convergent mixedmethods design and its objective of integrating statistical evidence with stakeholder experiences to understand the disruptive dynamics of the SGR in Kenya. The study will make use of a convergent mixed-methods research design, that will use both quantitative and qualitative research methods. Quantitative data will be gathered through structured face-to-face questionnaires using stratified random sampling, whereas qualitative data will be gathered using semi-structured interviews with purposively selected information-rich participants. Quantitative data will be analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, including t-tests, ANOVA, chi-square tests, correlation, confidence intervals, and multiple linear regression, while qualitative data will be analyzed thematically. Triangulation will be used to merge the qualitative and quantitative data analysed at the interpretation stage. This study is expected to provide an all-inclusive intel of the financial, management, and community consequences of SGR-induced modal shifts and generate evidence-based policy recommendations for promoting an efficient, competitive, balanced, and sustainable multimodal transport system in Kenya.