Do Social Safety Nets Buffer the Nutritional Effects of Drought? A Longitudinal Study of Children in Ethiopia

Abstract Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to droughts due to its geographic features and the effects of climate change. Droughts contribute to child undernutrition by disrupting food security, yet little is known about the extent to which social protection systems can buffer these impacts. Using panel data from the Young Lives cohort study (2009–2017), we examined how drought exposure during early childhood influences adolescent nutritional outcomes and whether Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) mitigates these effects. The dataset includes information on children’s anthropometric status, food aid participation, and historical community-level weather records. Droughts were defined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), with values below − 1 indicating drought conditions. Associations were assessed using Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models (GLMMs), with bootstrapping to obtain robust standard errors. Results indicate that exposure to a 24-month drought is associated with both chronic and acute undernutrition, while 12-month droughts were associated only with acute undernutrition. Six-month drought was not associated with either outcome. Participation in PSNP significantly reduced the likelihood of undernutrition among children affected by prolonged (12- and 24-month) droughts, suggesting a protective effect of sustained food assistance. These findings highlight the critical role of long-term social protection and food aid programs in buffering children from the nutritional impacts of climate shocks. Strengthening and expanding such programs will be essential for safeguarding child health and resilience in drought-prone settings amid a changing climate.