Dynamics of dengue in complex socioecological systems: An agent-based conceptual model to explore the influence of vector and host parameters in urban environments of Tanzania

The transmission dynamics of infectious diseases cannot be fully understood based on recorded case data alone. Instead, epidemics represent a complex socioecological phenomenon that is shaped by pathogen, host, and environmental characteristics and their interactions. This is particularly true for zoonotic infectious diseases, including vector-borne diseases. ‘Digital twins’ can provide valuable insight to better understand such complex systems, and further allow for experimental epidemic and "what-if" scenarios that may not be implementable in real-world settings. Using the case of the mosquito-borne dengue virus, which is expanding globally including in sub-Saharan Africa, an agent-based modeling approach was designed that aims to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of the 2019 dengue virus outbreak in urban Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, East Africa. The framework represents the characteristics and interactions of humans and mosquitoes using digital agents in a synthetic urban environment, and incorporates a traditional mathematical SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to account for inter- and intra-host dynamics influenced by contextual factors such as local weather events. Questions in epidemiology, implementation research, and public health are outlined that can be explored using multiagent systems. In addition, useful data sources available for Tanzania are presented that informed the simulation framework.

Corresponding Author: Juliane Boenecke (juliane.boenecke@bnitm.de); Funding: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) / CONNECT Education-Research-Innovation (Grant ID: 01DU20005)