Dynamics of land use and land cover change in Puntland, Somalia: Drivers, trends, and implications for dryland ecosystem sustainability

Puntland State in northeastern Somalia exemplifies the challenges of balancing dryland resource use with ecosystem conservation under weak governance and climate variability. This study quantifies land use and land cover change (LULCC) dynamics in Puntland between 2010 and 2022 using Landsat satellite imagery (supervised classification, Maximum Likelihood Classifier), validated by household surveys (n=138), focus group discussions (n=4), and key informant interviews (n=6). Results show that in 2010, scrub/shrub dominated 15,116,029.49 ha (93.66%), bare ground 923,569 ha (5.72%), trees 62,573.60 ha (0.39%), water 31,104.90 ha (0.19%), crops 1,851.41 ha (0.01%), and built area 4,931.56 ha (0.03%). By 2022, scrub/shrub decreased to 13,623,750.00 ha (84.41%), while bare ground expanded dramatically to 2,440,480.00 ha (15.12%). Tree cover declined to 31,876.30 ha (0.20%), a loss of 30,697.30 ha at an annual deforestation rate of -6.13%, substantially higher than the national average (-1.03%). Crops increased to 5,223.73 ha (+9.43% annually), built area to 7,788.73 ha (+4.15% annually), while water surfaces remained stable (-0.05%). Community perceptions identified drought, overgrazing, and unsustainable wood harvesting as primary drivers. Frankincense (Boswellia frereana, B. sacra) and myrrh (Commiphora myrrha) value chains are critically threatened. Over 90% of institutional staff lacked formal environmental training. Puntland is transitioning from scrub/shrub rangeland to degraded bare ground. We recommend rangeland restoration, sustainable resin harvesting training, and institutional capacity building.