Economic horizontal inequality is linked to conflict persistence, not onset: High-resolution evidence from satellite-derived wealth measures in Africa

Conflict research links horizontal inequality—systematic inequalities between identity groups—to armed violence, but it remains unclear whether economic inequality predicts conflict outbreak or instead shapes conflict dynamics after violence becomes plausible. We revisit this question in Africa using high-resolution satellite-derived International Wealth Index estimates to measure economic horizontal inequality among politically relevant ethnic groups and local wealth shocks. In group-year models, economic horizontal inequality is not statistically associated with conflict onset, while political marginalization is a stronger predictor. By contrast, economic horizontal inequality is associated with active-rebel group-years and higher casualty intensity among active-conflict group-years. A spatiotemporal counterfactual analysis finds that dense local wealth-shock scenarios are not associated with more conflict events on average, but estimated conditional contrasts become positive in areas with large absolute economic horizontal inequality. Economic horizontal inequality may therefore matter less as a general trigger than as a condition shaping conflict persistence, severity, and shock vulnerability.