Effects of Climate Change Risks on Yam Production in Yagba West Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria

ABSTRACT This study examined the effects of climate change risks on yam production in Yagba West Local Government Area of Kogi State, Nigeria. A total of 370 yam farmers were selected using a multistage sampling technique, while data were obtained through structured questionnaires, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and secondary climatic records from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. Descriptive and inferential statistical tools, including percentages, mean scores, Pearson correlation, regression analysis, chi-square, and t-test, were used for analysis. Findings revealed that farmers are highly aware of climate change risks, with rainfall variability (mean = 4.08) ranking highest, followed by temperature increase (mean = 4.00) and delayed rainfall onset (mean = 3.90). Analysis of climatic data showed rainfall variability ranging from 1,089 mm to 1,521 mm with a mean of 1,329 mm, significantly affecting yam yields. Correlation results indicated a strong positive relationship between rainfall and yam yield (r = 0.672, p < 0.001) and a strong negative relationship between temperature and yield (r = -0.581, p < 0.001). Regression results showed that rainfall positively influenced yield (B = 0.006, R² = 0.45), while temperature had a negative effect (B = -0.782, R² = 0.34). Adaptation analysis showed that 65.4% of farmers adopted early-maturing yam varieties, 53.5% adjusted planting dates, and only 24.9% practiced irrigation due to high cost. Regression analysis further revealed that socio-economic variables explained 62% of variation in adaptive capacity (R² = 0.64), with education (p < 0.001), farm size (p < 0.001), and credit access (p < 0.01) being significant predictors. Farmers who adopted adaptation strategies recorded higher yields (mean = 13.4 t/ha) than non-adopters (mean = 10.2 t/ha), with a significant difference (t = 8.56, p < 0.001). The study concludes that climate change significantly reduces yam productivity, while adaptation strategies improve yields. It recommends improved extension services, access to credit, and climate information systems to enhance farmers’ resilience.   Keywords:   Climate change risks, yam production, adaptation strategies, smallholder farmers, Yagba West LGA