EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MALARIA OUTBREAK IN DELOMENA DISTRICT, BALE ZONE, OROMIA, ETHIOPIA

Malaria is the major public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000m above mean sea level. The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of climate variability on the malaria outbreak in Delomena District, Bale Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia. Meteorological variables (monthly total rainfall, average relative humidity, mean maximum and minimum temperature) and malaria case data from 2013 to 2022 years wereused to analyze correlation and regression using SPSS 20v software.Besides, to strengthen the finding, a total of 367 sample households from three kebeles’ were selected by non-probability and probability sampling techniques for interviews and used the mean and standard deviation to assess the community’s perception of climate variability effects on malaria outbreak. The results indicated that monthly peak of malaria incidence in Dellomenna district occurred in Jun (11 cases), 2021, year after the main rainy season while the lowest malaria incidence occurred in January (0 case), following a short rainy season.Furthermore, the Spear man correlation analysis showed that monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean minimum temperature had a positive correlation with malaria occurrence but a negative correlation with mean maximum temperature. Also, the negative binomial regression model indicates that, by 1 mm and % increase, both monthly total rainfalls (0.9%) and average relative humidity (3%) at three and two month lagged effects were the most significant for malaria occurrence in the study area, respectively, but mean maximum temperature at zero month lagged effect was negative. However, the mean minimum temperature is insignificant effect on malaria incidence for all lags. The households’ perception result shows mean values (2.93) of the respondents have low perception, and the standard deviation value (1.29) also indicates that their perceptions are highly deviating from the mean and one another. The study concludes that malaria incidences in the last ten years seem to have a significant association and effects with meteorological variables. To reduce malaria outbreaks in the study area, local government and district health experts should promote climate-based malaria early warning 4