Election Observation and Public Confidence in the Outcome of the 2022 General Elections in Kenya

This study seeks to determine whether assessments by Kenyans of the credibility of Kenya’s 2022 elections are influenced by observer statements regarding the electoral process and the outcome. Drawing on research with focus groups and a pre-election survey conducted in Kenya, we develop a theory regarding the mechanisms that drive observer influence on public confidence regarding the freeness, fairness, and accuracy of the results of Kenya's 2022 elections. We then detail testable hypotheses, and provide a survey experiment to explore whether and by what means, international and domestic election observers influence assessments of election outcomes by ordinary Kenyans.