Electoral Design, Leadership Transitions, and Intra-Church Conflict in Tanzanian Protestant Churches

This study examines how electoral frameworks shape intra-church conflict in Tanzanian Protestant churches during leadership transitions. Using a qualitative-priority concurrent mixed-methods design (QUAL + quan) grounded in systems theory and social identity theory, the research combines semi-structured interviews with eight key informants and survey data from 171 respondents across three denominations in the Mbeya Region. The findings reveals that transitions are not neutral procedures but are shaped by constitutional design interacting with social identity dynamics, consistently favouring continuity over innovation. Three transition trajectories emerged: pre-negotiated ritual succession, stalled differentiation, and dynastic reproduction. PLS-SEM analysis confirms that electoral design reduces conflict prevalence, whereas institutional gaps amplify it. Most respondents agreed that executive interference in candidate vetting prolongs disputes and that constitutional ambiguities escalate conflict severity. The study concludes that institutional reform, including independent oversight, term limits, mandatory recusal of outgoing bishops, and cross-cutting electoral districts, can strengthen procedural legitimacy and system resilience.