Empirical Study of the determinants of E-Commerce Adoption Challenges and Opportunities in Mogadishu, Somalia

Abstract This empirical study examines the determinants of e-commerce adoption in the post-conflict economy of Somalia, Mogadishu. It examines the survey data of 201 respondents on usage pattern, perceived barriers, major challenges, motivators and prospects. Ordered logistic regression was used to compute both crude (bivariate) and adjusted (multivariate) odds ratios, thus revealing independent determinants of adoption levels. Findings show that prior e-commerce experience significantly predicts increased adoption (aOR = 9.60; 95% CI: 3.17–29.09, p < 0.001). Occupational status is important as students show significantly higher adoption rates compared to unemployed individuals (aOR = 0.13; p = 0.017) or general consumer population (aOR = 0.11; p = 0.019). Prolonged residency of more than ten years had a significant negative impact (aOR = 0.10; p = 0.003). Disagreement regarding logistics as an impediment significantly enhances the likelihood of adoption (aOR = 14.5; p = 0.008), although neutral views on trust-related barriers continue to exert influence (aOR = 7.40; p = 0.011). The recognition of e-commerce as a catalyst for employment development among youth and women is identified as the most significant factor (aOR = 12.1 for “agree” and 84.4 for “strongly agree”; both p ≤ 0.010). The findings highlight the criticality of experience components, occupational environment, logistical dependability, calibrated trust and opportunity perception, particularly in job creation, in shaping e-commerce trajectories. The findings offer practical guidance for commerce regulators to enhance infrastructure and regulatory reforms, for industry professionals to develop focused mobile-money platforms and awareness campaigns, and for researchers to conduct longitudinal and comparative studies in analogous fragile environments.