Estimating the Risk of Maternal Death at Admission: A Predictive Model from a 5-Year Case Reference Study in Northern Uganda

Background. Uganda is one of the countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa with a very high maternal mortality ratio estimated at 336 deaths per 100,000 live births. We aimed at exploring the main factors affecting maternal death and designing a predictive model for estimation of the risk of dying at admission at a major referral hospital in northern Uganda. Methods. This was a retrospective matched case-control study, carried out at Lacor Hospital in northern Uganda, including 130 cases and 336 controls, from January 2015 to December 2019. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the net effect of the associated factors. A cumulative risk score for each woman based on the unstandardised canonical coefficients was obtained by the discriminant equation. Results. The average maternal mortality ratio was 328 per 100,000 live births. Direct obstetric causes contributed to 73.8% of maternal deaths; the most common were haemorrhage (42.7%), sepsis (24.0%), hypertensive disorders (18.7%) and complications of abortion (2.1%), whereas malaria (23.5%) and HIV/AIDS (20.6%) were the leading indirect causes. The odds of dying were higher among women who were aged 30 years or more (OR 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04–1.19), did not attend antenatal care (OR 3.11; 95% CI, 1.36–7.09), were HIV positive (OR 3.13; 95% CI, 1.41–6.95), had a caesarean delivery (OR 2.22; 95% CI 1.13–4.37), and were referred from other facilities (OR 5.57; 95% CI 2.83–10.99). Conclusion. Mortality is high among mothers referred late from other facilities who are HIV positive, aged more than 30 years, lack antenatal care attendance, and are delivered by caesarean section. This calls for prompt and better assessment of referred mothers and specific attention to antibiotic therapy before and after caesarean section, especially among HIV-positive women.