Estimation of country-specific tuberculosis antibiograms using genomic data

Abstract Background Global tuberculosis (TB) drug resistance (DR) surveillance is largely focused on the drug rifampicin. We leveraged public and surveillance M. tuberculosis ( Mtb) whole genome sequencing (WGS) data, to generate more comprehensive country-level resistance prevalence estimates (antibiograms) using in silico resistance prediction. Methods We curated and quality-controlled Mtb WGS data. We used a validated random forest model to predict phenotypic resistance to twelve drugs and bias-corrected for model performance, outbreak sampling, and resistance oversampling. We validated our estimates using a national DR survey conducted in South Africa. Results Mtb isolates from 29 countries (n=19,149) met sequence quality criteria. Marginal genotypic resistance estimates overlapped with the South African DR survey for all drugs except isoniazid and second-line injectables that were underestimated (n=3,134); among multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB, estimates overlapped for pyrazinamide and the fluoroquinolones. Globally, mono-resistance to isoniazid was estimated at 10.9% (95% CI: 10.2-11.7%, n = 14,012. Mono-levofloxacin resistance rates were highest in South Asia (Pakistan 3.4% [0.1-11%], n=111 and India 2.8% [0.08-9.4%], n=114). Rates of resistance discordance between isoniazid and ethionamide were high with 74.4% (IQR: 64.5-79.7%) of isoniazid resistant isolates predicted to be ethionamide susceptible. The global susceptibility rate to pyrazinamide and levofloxacin among MDR was 15.1% (95% CI: 10.2-19.9%, n=3,964). Conclusions This is the first attempt at global Mtb antibiogram estimation. DR prevalence in Mtb can be reliably estimated using public WGS and phenotypic resistance prediction for key antibiotics. Our results raise concerns about the empiric use of short-course fluoroquinolone regimens for drug susceptible TB in South Asia and suggest that ethionamide is an under-utilized drug in MDR treatment.