Evaluating REDD+ Readiness: High-Potential Countries Based on MRV Capacity

The REDD+ framework (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, along with sustainable forest management and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) incentivizes developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance carbon storage by mitigating deforestation and forest degradation. To receive results-based payments, participating countries must meet United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) requirements for Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) capacities. This study categorizes developing countries into three phases based on MRV implementation levels: phase 1 (readiness), phase 2 (demonstration), and phase 3 (implementation). Unlike the higher implementation levels observed in phase 2 and phase 3 countries, phase 1 countries have received limited attention due to their early stages of REDD+ implementation. However, assessing the potential of these countries for future REDD+ engagement and Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcome (ITMO) collaboration is crucial for achieving REDD+ goals. Thus, this study quantitatively assessed MRV capacity among phase 1 countries using an MRV capacity assessment tool, with the goal of identifying high-potential candidates for REDD+ advancement. We applied an MRV capacity assessment tool to 48 phase 1 countries out of the 71 developing countries registered on the REDD+ web platform as of September 2024. The results reveal that (1) the countries with the highest MRV scores were Ghana, India, Guatemala, Liberia, and Mongolia, with Ghana demonstrating strong potential for progression to the implementation phase due to its robust performance in both Measurement and Reporting components. In contrast, Chad scored the lowest, followed by Uruguay, Namibia, Mali, Cuba, and Benin. (2) Overall, phase 1 countries scored lower in the Reporting (R) component, which emphasizes administrative capacity, compared to the Measurement (M) component, which is technically oriented, highlighting the need for improved administrative capacity, particularly in developing and submitting the National Strategy/Action Plan and Safeguard Information System report to meet Cancun Agreement standards. While this study evaluates REDD+ implementation potential in phase 1 countries based on MRV capacity, future research should explore the effectiveness of strengthening MRV capacity through Official Development Assistance (ODA), assessing potential emissions reduction and ITMO potential.