Evaluating the Relationship between Solar Geomagnetic Activity and Ground-Level Aerosol Dynamics across Urban Microenvironments in Southeastern Nigeria

This study investigates the relationship between solar geomagnetic activity and ground-level aerosol dynamics across contrasting urban microenvironments in Owerri, southeastern Nigeria. Ground-level particulate matter (PM₂.₅ and PM₁₀) and selected atmospheric pollutants were analyzed alongside planetary space-weather indices (Kp, Dst, and F10.7) using observations collected from ten monitoring stations during the wet and dry seasons (September–December 2025). Hourly air-quality measurements were aggregated into monthly mean values, quality-controlled using a Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) filter, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Spearman rank correlation, multiple Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) diagnostics. The results revealed marked seasonal and spatial variations in particulate matter concentrations, with traffic-dominated locations recording the highest PM₁₀ concentrations during the dry season. Spearman correlation analysis showed that PM₂.₅ was negatively correlated with the Kp index (r = −0.5115) and positively correlated with the F10.7 solar radio flux (r = 0.5115), suggesting an association between solar–geomagnetic activity and fine particulate variability. The multiple OLS regression model explained 74.3% of the variability in PM₂.₅ concentrations (R² = 0.743) and was statistically significant (F = 13.04, p = 6.89 × 10⁻⁷). Among the predictor variables, the Dst index, F10.7 solar radio flux, and carbon monoxide (CO) were significant contributors to PM₂.₅ variability, while VIF diagnostics indicated low multicollinearity among the local pollutant variables and moderate to high multicollinearity among the space-weather indices. The findings demonstrate significant statistical associations between solar geomagnetic activity and ground-level aerosol dynamics, although causal mechanisms require further investigation.