Examining the Interactive Effects of Temperature Change and Fertilizer Use on Agricultural Production Across Different Landholding Categories in Ethiopia

This study examined the spatial distribution of soil fertility and the relationships among fertilizer nutrients, temperature change, and food production in Ethiopia using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), trend analysis, and Pearson correlation coefficient techniques. Secondary data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) database and integrated with Ethiopia's administrative boundary shapefile within a GIS environment. Spatial analysis was conducted using symbology and field calculator tools to classify and map soil fertility levels across the country's regions, while trend analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient were employed to assess the relationships among fertilizer nutrients, temperature change, and food production. The results revealed considerable spatial variation in soil fertility, with the major agricultural regions of Amhara and Oromia characterized by predominantly poor soil fertility and Tigray exhibiting extensive areas of infertile soils. In contrast, Gambella, Somali, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions showed relatively higher soil fertility levels. Furthermore, the correlation analysis indicated that ammonia, sulfate, and potassium had negative associations with both food production and temperature change, suggesting reduced effectiveness under increasing temperature conditions. Conversely, urea and phosphate demonstrated greater tolerance to temperature variability and were positively associated with higher levels of food production. These findings indicate that fertilizer nutrients respond differently to climate variability and that regional differences in soil fertility significantly influence agricultural productivity. The study concludes that improving food production in Ethiopia requires region-specific soil fertility management interventions and climate-smart fertilizer application strategies, particularly in areas experiencing soil degradation and rising temperatures. Such approaches can contribute to enhanced agricultural productivity, sustainable land management, and improved food security under changing climatic conditions.