EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE OF THE TEA INDUSTRY IN KENYA, 2015-2025

ABSTRACT Tea remains one of Kenya's largest sources of foreign exchange, yet its export earnings move up and down with the shilling's value against the US dollar. This study examines how exchange rate fluctuations have shaped tea export performance in Kenya between 2015 and 2025. Using secondary annual data from the Tea Board of Kenya, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and the Central Bank of Kenya, the study applies trend analysis and simple linear regression to test the relationship between the exchange rate and export value. Findings show a strong positive relationship, with a weaker shilling generally associated with higher shilling-denominated export earnings, although export volumes are also driven by production, weather, and global demand. The study concludes that exchange rate management should form part of a wider strategy to stabilise tea earnings and recommends hedging mechanisms, market diversification, and closer monitoring of currency movements by industry stakeholders. Keywords: Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Export Performance, Tea Industry, Kenya, Trend Analysis, Regression Analysis