Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on the Upsurge of Crime and Security Challenges in Nigeria

Climate change has emerged as a significant structural driver of crime and insecurity in Nigeria, operating through the mediating pathways of resource depletion, displacement, livelihood collapse, and social fragmentation. This study examined the statistical relationship between five climate change indicators and six crime typologies across Nigeria's 37 administrative units over two decades (2000–2020) using panel data analysis, Pearson correlation, and multivariate OLS regression. Data were sourced from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), the International Crisis Group (ICG), and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) database. Findings reveal that desertification rate is the strongest climate-crime predictor (β = 0.634, p < 0.001), followed by temperature anomaly (β = 0.521) and crop failure index (β = 0.487). Farmer-herder conflict exhibits the highest correlation with desertification (r = 0.847), while flood frequency significantly correlates with displacement-related crime (r = 0.723). Lake Chad surface area declines correlates with Boko Haram attack frequency at a two-year lag (r = 0.683). The study concludes that climate change operates as a threat multiplier that systematically degrades security in Nigeria's most vulnerable zones, necessitating climate-security integration as a national policy priority