Farmers' Perceptions of Factors Constraining Tree Seedling Survival in Lowlands of Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia: Implications for Forest Landscape Restoration

Dryland forest restoration is critical for combating land degradation and supporting livelihoods, yet high seedling mortality rates often undermine investment effectiveness. This study assessed farmers' perceptions of factors constraining tree seedling survival in three administrative zones of Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia, using a mixed-methods approach incorporating semi-structured questionnaires (n=120), focus group discussions (n=8), and key informant interviews (n=27). Results revealed that drought and moisture stress (47%), soil fertility limitations (43%), and termite attack (10%) were the primary natural constraints, while livestock damage (59.1%), poor seedling quality (13.3%), and delayed planting (12.5%) were the most frequently cited managerial factors. Homesteads emerged as the most successful planting niche (47.7% of surviving seedlings) due to intensive management. Logistic regression with AIC-based model selection identified planting niche (homestead vs. hillside: odds ratio (OR) = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.16-0.53, p<0.001), extension access (OR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.24-0.77, p=0.004), and household education (OR = 0.56, 95% CI: 0.34-0.92, p=0.021) as significant predictors of farmer-reported seedling survival. Based on farmers' reported experiences and perceived needs, it was recommend that: (1) context-specific species selection based on site conditions and farmer preferences, including both drought-resistant native species and carefully selected exotic species; (2) improved nursery practices including quality standards for seedling height (>25 cm), root development, and health, with farmer participation in selection; (3) strengthened extension services through practical silvicultural training and participatory approaches that build on farmer knowledge; and (4) secure tenure arrangements through clear land-use agreements and community governance structures for hillside and communal plantings.