Flood Propagation and Inundation Responses Across the Sudd Wetland

Flooding is one of the most common and destructive natural disasters worldwide, and projections indicate that its intensity will increase across various climate regions during this century. South Sudan is particularly vulnerable due to a combination of factors, including hydrological releases from Lake Victoria, local rainfall patterns, and wetland retention dynamics. These factors raise important questions regarding the hydrological connectivity between Lake Victoria and the Nile system. This study examined how upstream hydrological conditions impact flood dynamics in South Sudan’s flood-prone regions, specifically in the states of Jonglei and Unity along the River Nile. To statistically estimate flood propagation lag time from Lake Victoria to the Sudd wetland, we used Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) remote sensing data and water-level altimetry from both Lake Victoria and the River Nile at Mangalla. The analytical methods included moving block bootstrap (MBB) cross-correlation and Gaussian process (GP) modeling. Furthermore, we validated the event-based propagation and inundation patterns using flood event reports from the Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM). The findings indicate that the statistical propagation signals took approximately 106 days during the wet season (95% confidence interval [CI]: 60–150 days) and 134 days during the dry season (95% CI: 75–195 days) for the downstream water level response to reach the River Nile at Mangalla, and 3–4 weeks to reach the adjacent floodplains downstream. Residual stationarity diagnostics showed augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) statistics below −7 across the analyzed propagation pathways, indicating statistically stationary lag-adjusted residual behavior. Consistent temporal correspondence between inferred flood arrival windows and independently reported DTM flood-impact periods provides cautious support for the hydrological plausibility of the estimated propagation structure.