Flood Vulnerability, Livelihood Disruption, and Structural Barriers to Adaptation among Smallholder Farmers: Evidence from Ndhiwa Sub-County, Kenya

Flooding poses an escalating threat to smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa, yet localised evidence on its spatiotemporal patterns, livelihood impacts, and determinants of adaptive capacity remains limited. This study examined flood vulnerability and its effects on smallholder farmers’ livelihoods in Ndhiwa Sub-County, Homa Bay County, Kenya, using the Disaster Resilience of Place (DROP) model. A cross-sectional mixed-methods design generated 213 household responses from seven flood-prone wards in April 2025, complemented by key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and meteorological data. The findings identified Kabuoch and Kanyadoto as chronic flood hotspots, with average annual flood recurrence rates of 2.1 and 1.8 events, respectively. Overall, 67% of households reported earlier flood onset or prolonged flood duration over the past decade. Multivariate linear regression (R² = 0.89) showed that wetland loss (β = 0.15, p < 0.001), riverbank encroachment (β = 0.09, p = 0.02), and inadequate drainage (β = 0.06, p = 0.04) were significantly associated with longer flood inundation. Flooding had substantial livelihood consequences: 64% of land-constrained households in low-lying areas experienced severe crop losses, while affected farming households required an average of 8.2 months to recover their incomes. Only 30% of households implemented effective adaptation measures, mainly constrained by limited financial resources (63%), insecure land tenure (28%), and inadequate access to information (24%). Female-headed households faced a 24-percentage-point credit access gap compared with male-headed households, constraining structural adaptation. The study concludes that flood vulnerability in Ndhiwa is shaped by interacting climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Strengthening resilience requires integrated ecosystem restoration, gender-responsive financial support, improved drainage systems, and anticipatory institutional governance.