Forecasting Malaria Cases In Bujumbura

The focus in this work is to assess which method allows a better forecasting of malaria cases in Bujumbura ( Burundi) when taking into account association between climatic factors and the disease. For the period 1996-2007, real monthly data on both malaria epidemiology and climate in Bujumbura are described and analyzed. We propose a hierarchical approach to achieve our objective. We first fit a Generalized Additive Model to malaria cases to obtain an accurate predictor, which is then used to predict future observations. Various well-known forecasting methods are compared leading to different results. Based on in-sample mean average percentage error (MAPE), the multiplicative exponential smoothing state space model with multiplicative error and seasonality performed better. {"references": ["A. Gomez-Elipe, Otero A, M. Van Herp and A.Aguirre-Jaime,\n\"Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and\nenvironmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997-2003,\" Malaria Journal\n2007, 6:129, 1-10.", "R. J. Hynman, A. B. Koehler, J. K. Ord, and R. D.Snyder, Forecasting\nwith exponential smoothing: the state space approach. Springer, 2008.", "R. J. Hyndman, M. Akram, and B. C. Archibal, \" The admissible\nparameter space for exponential smoothing models,\" Annals of the\nInstitute of Statistical Mathematics 2008, 60: 407-426.", "D. C. Medina, E. S. Findley, and S. Doumbia \" State-Space Forecast of\nSchistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali,\" PLOS\nneglected tropical diseases 2008, 8: 1-12.", "fr.wikipedia.org.", "Ministry of Health in Burundi , EPISTAT.", "Ministry of Planning and Environment in Burundi, IGEBU.", "WHO: Strat\u00e9gie de coop\u00e9ration de l-OMS avec les pays. R\u00e9publique du\nBurundi 2005-2009.", "T. A. Abeku, S. J. De Vlas, G. Borsboom, A.Teklehaimanot, A. Kebede,\nD. Olana, G. J. Van Oortmarssen, and J. D. Habbema,\n\"Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in\nepidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method\nperforms best,\" Tropical Meicine of International Health 2002,\n7(10):851-7.\n[10] H. Pruscha, \"Residual and forecast methods in time series models with\ncovariates,\" Collaborative Research Center 386, University of Munich,\n1996.\n[11] M. J. Bouma , C. Dye , and H. J. Van der Kaay , \"Falciparum malaria\nand climate change in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan,\"\nAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 1996,55:131-137.\n[12] A. J. Dobson. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. Second\nEdition, Chapman & Hall, 2002.\n[13] P.J.Diggle, P. Heagerty , K.Y. Liang S., and Zeger, Analysis of\nLongitudinal Data. Oxford Science Publications, 1994.\n[14] T. J. Hastie and R. J. Tibshirani, Generalized Additive Models.\nChapman & Hall, 1997.\n[15] L. Fahrmeir and G. Tutz, Multivariate Statistical Modelling based on\ngeneralized linear models. Springer, 2001.\n[16] S. Wang, Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting and Bayesian\nValidation of Computer Models, Thesis, Georgia Institute of\nTechnology , 2006.\n[17] R. J. Hyndman, A. B. Koehler, R.D. Snyder, and S. Grose, \"A state\nspace framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing\nmethods,\" International Journal of Forecasting 2002, 18: 439- 454.\n[18] ipredict.it] R. J. Hyndman and A. B. Koehler, \"Another look at measures of\nforecast accuracy,\" International Journal of Forecasting 2006, 22: 679-\n688."]}