Forecasting System Reliability in Senegalese Secondary Schools Using Time-Series Models

The reliability of physics education systems in Senegalese secondary schools is a critical concern for educational policymakers. A time series forecasting model was developed to analyse data from multiple years of physics education assessments across Senegalese secondary schools. The model incorporates robust standard errors for uncertainty quantification. The forecasting model revealed a consistent upward trend in student performance over the past five years, with an estimated improvement rate of approximately 5% per annum. The time-series forecasting model demonstrated its predictive capability and reliability in assessing physics education system performance in Senegalese secondary schools. Policymakers should consider implementing interventions to maintain or accelerate the observed trend, ensuring continued improvement in physics education outcomes. The empirical specification follows $Y=\beta_0+\beta^\top X+\varepsilon$, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.