From Capacity Surplus to Reliability Deficit: Modelling Ghana's Electricity Supply Gap and Load Shedding Dynamics (2016-2025)

Purpose To investigate the structural and operational factors responsible for Ghana's persistent electricity supply unreliability despite substantial growth in installed generation capacity between 2016 and 2025, and to assess the potential of energy efficiency interventions to address emerging supply-demand imbalances. Design/methodology/approach A mixed-methods approach combining descriptive trend analysis, multiple regression modelling and Energy Performance Certification (EPC)-based demand reduction scenarios was employed to examine electricity supply reliability, demand dynamics and system performance from 2016 to 2025. Findings Installed capacity increased from about 4,100 MW in 2016 to over 5,200 MW in 2025; however, available capacity often remained below peak demand. Regression results indicate that generation outages, gas supply variability and transmission losses significantly explain electricity deficits (R² ≈ 0.78). EPC-based modelling shows that an 18% improvement in energy efficiency could eliminate peak deficits, highlighting reliability and governance challenges rather than capacity shortages. Research limitations/implications The analysis is based on national-level sector data and assumes projected efficiency gains under EPC implementation scenarios. Practical implications Policy efforts should prioritise fuel security, grid modernisation, institutional reforms and demand-side energy efficiency programmes. Originality/value The study introduces EPC-based deficit modelling, demonstrating how energy efficiency can complement supply-side investments to improve electricity reliability.