From Coping to Consolidation: A Critical Conceptual Framework for Sequencing Refugee Livelihood Strategies in Kyaka II Settlement, Uganda

Purpose: This paper develops an original conceptual framework for analysing the sequencing of livelihood strategies among refugee households in Kyaka II Settlement, Uganda. Moving beyond static cross-sectional typologies, it argues that livelihood progression is a non-linear, structurally mediated process. This process is shaped by the dynamic interaction of capital asset endowments, social network configurations, gender and generational dynamics, and the institutional environment governing refugee economic participation. The paper critically interrogates the implicit progressivism of self-reliance policy frameworks and advances the concept of stabilisation lock-in to explain why the majority of households remain anchored in intermediate livelihood phases despite extended settlement residence. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper employs a critical conceptual review methodology, systematically synthesising theoretical and empirical scholarship from refugee studies, development economics, and the sociology of displacement. It integrates three complementary theoretical traditions, the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF), the Stages of Livelihood Security model, and Social Capital Theory, into a unified analytical architecture applied to the Kyaka II context. Bourdieu's (1986) distinction between bonding and bridging capital is incorporated within the social capital strand. Findings: The analysis advances five conceptual propositions identifying the mechanisms through which households navigate three analytically distinct livelihood phases: immediate coping, adaptive stabilisation, and incremental consolidation. The framework identifies stabilisation lock-in as a structural phenomenon produced by four converging factors: capital scarcity, limited bridging social capital, gender and generational marginalisation, and institutional enabling-environment deficits. It argues that sequencing trajectories are more strongly predicted by pre-displacement characteristics and social network composition than by duration of settlement residence. Practical Implications: The framework provides humanitarian and development actors with a phase-differentiated conceptual tool for designing context-sensitive livelihood interventions calibrated to the sequencing position of specific household types, with particular attention to women-headed households and youth facing compounded structural constraints. Originality/Value: This paper makes an original theoretical contribution by proposing the Critical Sequencing Framework for Refugee Livelihoods (CSRF), which introduces an explicitly temporal and relational dimension into livelihood analysis in protracted displacement contexts. It advances a research agenda for longitudinal empirical validation and contributes critically grounded arguments for a development approach to refugee response that addresses structural enabling conditions rather than individual agency deficits.