From Data Handling to Evidence-Based Reasoning: Latent Profiles of Junior High School Learners’ Statistical Reasoning in Ghana

This study examined how Junior High School learners’ statistical reasoning is configured across data representation, computation, interpretation, comparison, and evidence-based conclusion drawing. Drawing on a cross-sectional assessment of 437 JHS 2 learners from 13 schools in Bolgatanga Municipality, Ghana, the study used latent profile analysis to identify learner subgroups and multinomial logistic regression to examine predictors of profile membership. A three-profile solution was retained: emerging statistical reasoning, developing procedural reasoning, and advanced balanced reasoning. The largest profile showed relatively stronger computation and data representation but weaker interpretation, comparison, and evidence-based conclusion drawing, indicating that procedural data handling does not necessarily translate into statistical reasoning with evidence. Prior mathematics achievement, textbook access, private school attendance, data-task exposure, and school location were associated with profile membership. The study contributes to statistics education research by providing a construct-linked, person-centred account of how school-level statistical reasoning varies within an under-represented African basic education context and by showing how profile evidence can inform differentiated instruction in data-rich mathematics classrooms.