From Ecological Corridors to Urban Fabric: A GIS-Based Analysis of Land-Use Transition Pathways in a Rapidly Urbanising African Periphery

Journal of Land Use and Sustainable Development,3(1), African urban expansion is often viewed simply as more built-up land, but this focus on net change overlooks the spatial processes through which ecological landscapes are reshaped and integrated into cities. This research uses GIS and multi-temporal remote sensing to trace land-use change pathways in peri-urban Ikorodu, Lagos, from 2002 to 2024. Land-use maps for 2002, 2013, and 2024 were classified into categories: Water Bodies, Urban/Built-up Areas, Peri-urban Transitional Land, and Vegetated Ecological Corridors. Post-classification matrices analysed persistence, direct change, and staged transformation, while fixed-point trajectories at 67 neighbourhoods provided consistent local evidence of change. Built-up land increased from 24.14 km² to 162.64 km², while ecological corridors decreased by 101.87 km². Between 2002–2013, 65.05 km² of ecological corridors converted into transitional land and 28.12 km² directly into built-up areas. From 2013–2024, transitional land-to-built-up conversions grew to 58.35 km², accounting for nearly 75% of new urban land. Eight neighbourhoods followed the full ecological–transitional–built-up sequence. The results reveal a phase of ecological destabilisation succeeded by intensified urban expansion. Monitoring the shift from ecological to transitional land with GIS and remote sensing offers an early warning for urban planning, enabling intervention before development becomes harder to redirect.