From Energy Projects Toward Green Industrialization: China–Morocco Energy Cooperation Under Geoeconomic Fragmentation

The global energy transition is increasingly shaped by industrial competition, supply chain restructuring, and fragmented regulation. Morocco seeks to turn its renewable energy potential into green industrial capacity, while China has become an important partner in renewable-energy infrastructure, battery materials, storage, and hydrogen. This study examines whether China–Morocco energy cooperation is moving from individual projects toward green industrialization, and what conditions shape its sustainability outcomes. Using a qualitative case study approach, it analyzes policy documents, legal texts, corporate announcements, project records, and international organization reports from 2016 to June 2026. The project database covers twelve projects: four operational, three under construction, three signed, one awarded, and one announced. The findings show an emerging, partial, and uneven shift in project composition that points toward a potential project-to-industry transition, though industrial upgrading remains largely prospective. Chinese investment may support Morocco’s renewable deployment, manufacturing localization, and participation in low-carbon value chains, but these gains depend on domestic supplier linkages, workforce skills, technological absorption, environmental governance, and institutional coordination. European Union (EU) due-diligence rules and United States (U.S.) clean energy policies also create regulatory exposure and compliance pressures that may shape project ownership, sourcing, production standards, and export-market access. The study argues that foreign green capital alone does not constitute green industrialization. Sustainable progress depends on Morocco’s ability to anchor individual projects in local capabilities while adapting to a fragmented geoeconomic environment.