FROM RESOURCE COMPETITION TO TRANSITION CONFLICT: FOREIGN ACTORS AND CONTESTED AGRICULTURAL FUTURES IN NIGERIA

Farmer–herder conflicts constitute a major challenge to agricultural sustainability, food security, and rural development in Nigeria. This study conceptualizes these conflicts as socio-ecological transition conflicts and examines how structural pressures, governance arrangements, competing agricultural futures, and foreign interventions shape conflict dynamics. Grounded in Gramscian Political Ecology and Transition Conflict Theory, the study employed a convergent mixed-method ethnographic design involving 295 respondents across five conflict-prone states. Data were collected through surveys, interviews, focus group discussions, and documentary analysis. Results indicate that land pressure (β = 0.427, p < 0.01) was the strongest predictor of conflict intensity, followed by climate stress (β = 0.311, p < 0.01), while governance capacity (β = –0.294, p < 0.01) significantly reduced conflict risks. Foreign actor influence (β = 0.188, p < 0.05) and agricultural transformation initiatives (β = 0.205, p < 0.05) were positively associated with conflict intensity. The model explained 64% of conflict variation (R² = 0.64). An unexpected finding was that ethnic identity (mean = 3.96/5) ranked below land pressure (4.62/5) and climate stress (4.49/5) as a conflict driver. The study develops a novel integrated framework linking power, governance, and agricultural transformation to conflict outcomes.