Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping to understand water security, food security and health in pastoral systems in northern Kenya; opportunities and failings for aid and sustainable development

Background: Pastoralism in northern Kenya is a complex adaptive system, with multiple interacting, intractable problems limiting progress towards local, national and global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These problems manifest as persistent food and water insecurity, sub-standard human and livestock health, and limited access to veterinary services and markets. This is further compounded by social, political and economic marginalisation and changing climate extremes. Linear, sectoral approaches by NGOs and government to progress towards the SDGs have produced mixed results, often undermining other components of the pastoral system, largely due to a lack of understanding of the broader socio-ecological system and the extra-sectoral links that make pastoralism a complex system. Methods: We conducted 35 Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) interviews with key informants in Marsabit county, Kenya, to understand the pastoral systems relating to food security, water security and health. We aggregate these system maps to generate a consensus map and use centrality measures to understand drivers and outcomes in the system. We compare stakeholder and gender disaggregated system maps to explore mismatches in system conceptualisation. Results: We present the complete system as a directed, weighted network, with an interactive tool to allow policy makers and practitioners to explore the system. Stakeholder and gender comparison identifies structural and scale differences in system conceptualisation, highlighting weak points in the way development interventions are conceived, designed and implemented. These are specifically around water security, finances, governance and climate change. We also provide a discussion on the merits and limitations of the FCM methodology for implementing systems thinking in pastoral contexts. Conclusions: The systems approach used in this work provides a means of operationalising transdisciplinary frameworks such as One Health, and highlights specific areas of focus for improved intervention prioritisation and design. The FCM process also lays the foundation for more equal co-production of knowledge regarding the pastoral system and facilitates common knowledge between system stakeholders to build pastoral resilience and progress towards the SDGs.