Gender Inequality and Climate Action: A Bayesian Analysis of Solar Energy Adoption among Nigerian SMEs

Despite increasing recognition of gender dynamics in climate action, empirical research examining how female entrepreneurship shapes renewable energy adoption in developing economies remains scarce. This study investigates how female business ownership and owner-specific demographic attributes influence the uptake of solar energy among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria. Grounded in Granular Interaction Thinking Theory (GITT)—which integrates worldviews from quantum mechanics and mathematical logic—we apply Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and its No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) extension to analyze data from 1,122 rural and peri-urban SMEs connected to the national grid. The modeling of the data employs the Bayesian network logic with nonlinear interactions. Actual simulations are performed on four chains, with satisfactory convergence and efficient sample sizes of key simulated populations running from 2,600-4,100. The robustness check also shows reliability following PSIS-LOO diagnostics for estimated coefficients, reported together with HPDI of 90%. Three key findings follow. First, female business ownership shows an ambiguous direct association with solar adoption, contradicting expectations from household-level studies. This contradiction reflects structural barriers—limited capital access, technical knowledge deficits, and institutional constraints—that prevent sustainability-oriented values from translating into observable behavior despite women's disproportionate experience with energy insecurity. Second, owner age reliably and negatively moderates the gender-solar adoption relationship, suggesting that older female entrepreneurs are less likely to adopt solar energy. Third, business experience demonstrates no reliable moderating effect. Thus, it appears that conventional entrepreneurial knowledge provides limited relevant information for evaluating emerging renewable technologies. These patterns demonstrate how structural inequalities can suppress value-congruent behaviors and highlight the necessity of age-differentiated, gender-responsive policy interventions. It is plausible to conclude that inclusive energy transitions require addressing intersectional vulnerabilities beyond simple technology deployment, with implications for achieving Sustainable Development Goals related to gender equality, reduced inequalities, and climate action across Sub-Saharan Africa.