abdifatah-ds/kenya-youth-unemployment-analysis

Data analysis of Kenya's youth unemployment trends (1991–2025) using Python, Pandas, and Plotly. Includes trend analysis, decade comparison, and correlation heatmap # 🇰🇪 Kenya Youth Unemployment Analysis (1991–2025) > A data science research project investigating the long-term trajectory of youth unemployment in Kenya using exploratory analysis, statistical decomposition, and ARIMA time series forecasting. ## 👋 About This Project This project analyses 35 years of Kenyan youth unemployment data to understand whether the crisis is structural or cyclical, and projects trends through 2030 using statistical forecasting. It was built independently as part of my data science learning journey — using real World Bank data, Python, and standard research methods to investigate a problem that directly affects millions of young Kenyans including myself. --- ## 📌 Research Question **How has youth unemployment in Kenya evolved over time, and can we forecast its future trajectory using time series modeling?** ### Sub-questions - What is the long-term structural trend in Kenya's youth unemployment? - Are there significant short-term fluctuations around the trend? - What do statistical methods reveal about the nature of the crisis? - Can we reliably forecast unemployment levels through 2030? --- ## 💡 Hypothesis Youth unemployment in Kenya shows a persistent upward structural trend, with short-term fluctuations driven by external economic shocks rather than cyclical patterns. Without deliberate policy intervention, this trend is projected to continue through 2030. --- ## 📂 Project Structure kenya-youth-unemployment-analysis/ ├── data/ │ ├── SLUEM1524ZSKEN.csv │ └── kenya_unemployment_clean.csv ├── notebooks/ │ ├── 1_data_cleaning.ipynb │ ├── 2_eda.ipynb │ ├── 3_statistical_analysis.ipynb │ ├── 4_forecasting.ipynb │ ├── trend_chart.png │ ├── bar_chart.png │ ├── heatmap.png │ ├── decomposition.png │ └── forecast_chart.png ├── requirements.txt └── README.md --- ## 🗃️ Dataset | Field | Details | |---|---| | Source | FRED Economic Data — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | | Indicator | SLUEM1524ZSKEN (World Bank / ILO) …