AbdoulGafarouZOUNGRANA/Statistical-Analysis-Predictive-Modeling-of-Youth-Unemployment-in-Morocco-2000-2024-

Statistical Analysis & Predictive Modeling of Youth Unemployment in Morocco (2000-2024) # Statistical Analysis & Predictive Modeling of Youth Unemployment in Morocco (2000-2024) **End-of-Module Project: Statistical Inference & Data Analysis** *École Mohammadia d'Ingénieurs (EMI)* --- ## 📖 Project Overview This project applies **Data Science** and **Statistical Inference** techniques to analyze the structural determinants of youth unemployment in Morocco. Using a dataset spanning 24 years (2000-2024), we modeled the complex interactions between macro-economic variables and labor market dynamics, comparing the results with Sub-Saharan Africa trajectories. --- ## 👨‍✈️ My Contribution: Team Lead & Project Pilot As the **Group Leader**, I was responsible for the project architecture, workflow coordination, and ensuring the scientific rigor of our approach. My specific technical contribution focused on **Part 2: Macro-economic Modeling & Analysis**. I led the investigation into how major economic indicators drive—or fail to drive—youth employment. ### 🧠 AI & Statistical Concepts Applied We moved beyond descriptive statistics to apply **Machine Learning** and **Inferential** concepts: * **📉 Linear Regression Models (OLS):** Quantifying the elasticity of unemployment relative to economic shocks. * **🔮 Predictive Analysis:** Forecasting trends based on historical volatility and "monotony" analysis. * **✅ Hypothesis Testing:** Validating assumptions (e.g., Phillips Curve, Okun's Law) using rigorous statistical tests (**Student, Shapiro-Wilk, Wilcoxon**). * **📊 Correlation Matrix Analysis:** Identifying latent relationships between 8 key variables. --- ## 🔍 Key Findings: Macro-economic Analysis My analysis highlighted a fundamental **"Moroccan Paradox"**: High investment rates but low job creation for youth. ### 1. Agriculture: The Stochastic Regulator 🌾 > *"The economy breathes to the rhythm of the rainfall."* * **Distribution:** **Bimodal distribution**, reflecting the binary nature of the economy (drought vs. abundance). * **Regression R …