adetunjiadesibikan/nigeria-digital-lending-credit-risk

Domaine:

socioeconomic

Type de record:

dataset

Créateur:

ade

Hôte:

SQL + Power BI credit risk intelligence dashboard modelling portfolio monitoring for a Nigerian digital lender. PAR analysis, NPL tracking, early warning signals, geographic risk, and revenue realization. # Nigeria Digital Lending — Credit Risk Intelligence Dashboard ## Business Problem Nigerian digital lenders and commercial banks face significant portfolio risk management challenges as digital credit scales rapidly. This project models how a risk team at a Nigerian fintech would monitor a live loan portfolio — tracking delinquency, default rates, revenue realization, and early warning signals before they appear in headline NPL metrics. ## Dataset Synthetic dataset of 500 loan applications and 239 disbursed loans across four products (Salary Advance, Personal Loan, SME Loan, Buy Now Pay Later) in eight Nigerian states. Dataset structure reflects real Nigerian digital lending product design, CBN regulatory thresholds, and IFRS 9 classification logic. **Products:** Salary Advance | Personal Loan | SME Loan | Buy Now Pay Later **States:** Lagos, FCT, Oyo, Rivers, Ogun, Kano, Kaduna, Enugu **Channels:** Mobile App | USSD | Web | Agent ## Tools - **SQL:** DB Browser for SQLite — 9 queries covering portfolio analysis, risk segmentation, and early warning detection - **Power BI:** 5-page dashboard — Executive Summary, Credit Risk Analysis, Portfolio Performance, Geographic Risk, Operational Intelligence ## Key Findings | Metric | Value | |--------|-------| | Total Portfolio | ₦98.0M | | Overall NPL Rate | 5.4% (above CBN 5% prudential threshold) | | PAR30 | 15.3% | | Interest Realization Rate | 66.7% | | Pre-Default Stress Signals | 29 loans (12.1%) | | Creditworthy Borrowers Incorrectly Declined | 21 (₦1.6M missed revenue) | **Headline insights:** - Personal Loans carry 13.2% NPL — the primary risk driver in the portfolio - BNPL shows 25.2% PAR30 with zero confirmed defaults — explained by 14–30 day tenor and high self-cure rates - FCT has zero confirmed defaults on ₦15.5M exposure — clearest geographic expansion signal - Incomplete Docs declines show a 70% false-positive rate for creditworthy borrowers — a process failure, not a credit policy failure ## SQL Qu …

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