Akanscode/nigeria-food-price-forecasting

Nigeria Food Price Forecasting Exploratory analysis of 20+ years of Nigerian food price data, as the first step toward a full forecasting and supply chain optimization system for agricultural markets. Dataset World Food Programme (WFP) Nigeria food price monitoring data — 51,000+ price records, 42 commodities, 14 states, 55 markets, 2002–2023. (kaggle.com Key Findings 1. Maize prices swing ~30% every year, on a predictable schedule Prices bottom out in **February** (post-harvest glut) and peak in **June** (lean season, before the next harvest) — the same pattern repeats every year across two decades of data. .png) 2. Markets 500+ km apart move almost in lockstep Wholesale maize prices in Kano (Dawanau — a major northern grain hub), Lagos, and Oyo correlate at **0.987+** with each other, despite serving very different roles in the supply chain. .png) This suggests Nigeria's maize market is well-integrated — price signals move fast across regions — which matters for anyone building forecasting or logistics tools: a shared national model may outperform 14 separate state-level ones. .png) Author Nurudeen Ajeleye Ojo — LinkedIn | nurudeenajeleyeojo@gmail.com