Aroh-Tochii/flood-analysis

Flood susceptibility monitoring & early warning system for Anambra State Nigeria — SVM model trained on 13 years NASA POWER satellite data (2012–2024) across 5 Niger Floodplain LGAs, with interactive prediction dashboard # Anambra Flood Monitoring & Prediction System A machine learning-powered flood susceptibility monitoring and early warning system for the **Niger Floodplain, Anambra State, Nigeria** — built as a thesis research project and extended into a production-ready analytical platform. ## Overview This system monitors flood susceptibility across 5 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in the Anambra Niger Floodplain using 13 years of daily NASA satellite climate data (2012–2024), trained ML models, and an interactive monitoring dashboard with real-time prediction and early warning capabilities. ## Study Area **Location:** Anambra State, Nigeria — Niger Floodplain **LGAs Covered:** - Anambra East - Anambra West - Ayamelum - Ogbaru - Onitsha North/South ## System Architecture ``` NASA POWER Satellite Data (2012–2024) ↓ Climate Data Processing & Feature Engineering ↓ ML Model Training (SVM · Random Forest · Gradient Boosting) ↓ Flood Susceptibility Classification ↓ Interactive Monitoring Dashboard (4 tabs) ↓ Real-time Prediction API (/api/predict · /api/forecast) ``` ## Machine Learning Models Three models trained and compared using spatial cross-validation: | Model | Description | |---|---| | **SVM (Selected)** | Support Vector Machine — production model | | Random Forest | Ensemble tree-based classifier | | Gradient Boosting | Boosted ensemble classifier | **Flood Susceptibility Classes:** - **Class 0** — Non-flood (safe) - **Class 1** — Flood susceptible (high risk) **Validation approach:** Spatial cross-validation to prevent data leakage across geographic boundaries — standard practice in geospatial ML. ## Data Sources **Climate Variables (NASA POWER — Daily, 2012–2024):** | Variable | Description | |---|---| | `PRECTOTCORR` | Precipitation Corrected (mm/day) | | `RH2M` | Relative Humidity at 2 Meters (%) | | `T2M` | Temperature at 2 Meters (°C) | | `T2MDEW` | Dew/Frost Point at 2 Meters (°C) | | `T2MWET` | Wet Bulb Temperature at 2 Meters (°C) | **Historical Flood …